In a quiet suburb outside Indianapolis, Emily Townsend stands in her kitchen, looking at a yellowing sticky note still clinging to her refrigerator door. Written in blue ink, now slightly faded, are the words: “Buy a home by 2023.” It was a hopeful declaration she and her husband made back in early 2020—a small goal for a young couple looking to plant roots, build equity, and raise their two kids with a backyard to call their own.
But life, as it tends to do, had other plans. Prices surged. Gasoline costs crept up every week. Grocery bills doubled before she could blink. And those 3%-ish mortgage rates that once made homeownership seem achievable? Gone—replaced by the cold reality of 7% and higher. “We weren’t giving up,” Emily said, “but we were definitely backing off. We simply couldn’t make the numbers work.”
Her story isn’t unusual. Across America, families are stuck in a holding pattern, desperately wanting to buy but unable to break through the barriers of high interest rates and tight budgets.
Then came a speech—more precisely, a pre-recorded video played at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Legislative Meetings in Washington, D.C., in May 2025. Donald Trump, once again president, looked straight into the camera and made a bold promise: to “quickly defeat inflation” and make it easier for “millions of Americans” to finally own a home.
“I love people in the real estate business,” Trump said, a familiar grin creeping across his face. “You help make the American Dream of homeownership come true. And together, we’re going to make that dream easier to achieve than ever before.”
For some, the speech sparked renewed hope. For others, it raised eyebrows.
Trump pointed to a few promising indicators: an April inflation rate of just 2.3%, well below expectations, and a 0.8% surge in wages that month—triple what analysts predicted. Mortgage rates, he said, were starting to inch downward. And he pledged sweeping tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks that he claimed would inject “more money into the pockets of everyday Americans,” potentially boosting household income by as much as $13,000.
It was a message tailored to middle-class families who had felt left behind. “Think about that,” Trump said. “With your help, $13,000 can empower record numbers of Americans to achieve financial independence—and find the home of their dreams.”
But that vision, inspiring as it sounds, doesn’t come without complications.
Samuel Lee, a general contractor in Maryland, has been feeling the pressure from another Trump policy—one that took effect on June 5: a 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum. “I got a quote for steel framing last week that was 15% higher than the month before,” he said. “That kind of cost jump hits fast and hard, especially when you’re bidding on new developments.”
Lee’s story is echoed by builders across the country. Hannah Jones, a senior economic analyst at Realtor.com, warned that “higher tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum can drive up the cost of new construction. And those costs, inevitably, get passed on to buyers in the form of higher home prices.”
Which means that even as inflation cools and mortgage rates start to ease, the cost of actually building new homes could start to climb again.
And therein lies the tension. One part of the economic puzzle starts to settle—another begins to wobble.
Affordability remains the biggest hurdle. According to Realtor.com’s May 2025 housing report, inventory is rising in some regions—up 40.7% year-over-year in the West and 32.9% in the South—but home prices remain out of reach for many first-time buyers. The 7% mortgage rate isn’t helping, especially for younger families or those with tighter credit profiles.
“We’re still very much in a housing affordability crisis,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. “Doubling tariffs on essential building materials like steel and aluminum only worsens that crisis by adding uncertainty and squeezing profit margins.”
Trump’s administration, for its part, remains bullish. The president thanked NAR for backing what he called “the most important piece of legislation in decades”—a tax and spending reform bill currently moving through the Senate. He urged lawmakers to get it to his desk by July 4, promising it would preserve small business tax breaks and reduce financial pressure on Realtors® and their clients alike.
Critics, however, point to a downside. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that while the proposed tax reforms might reduce household tax burdens in the short term, they’re projected to add trillions to the national debt in the long run. That added debt could eventually fuel more inflation—or require the Fed to raise interest rates again.
So, will the dream become reality?
The data paints a mixed picture. While new listings rose 4.2% year-over-year last month, buyer hesitation remains palpable. High interest rates continue to weigh heavily, and even marginal upticks in material costs or inflation expectations can tip the scales for would-be homeowners.
Still, the market may be more sensitive to sentiment than statistics. Trump’s speech may not change mortgage rates overnight, but it may change how people feel about the future—how willing they are to reenter the market, to start planning again, to believe that buying a home is still within reach.
Emily Townsend has felt that shift herself. “I don’t know if I fully trust it yet,” she admitted. “But I do feel like... maybe now is the time to start paying attention again. At least we’re not feeling completely shut out anymore.”
She and her husband haven’t bought yet. But they’ve restarted their search. They’ve set new budget parameters, recalculated their monthly payments, and even scheduled a few open houses. The sticky note on the fridge has a new line scribbled underneath the original dream: “Try again in 2025.”
And perhaps, in a country where the lines between politics, policy, and everyday life grow blurrier by the day, that’s the most anyone can ask for—a second chance, a little hope, and the possibility that the American Dream is not quite out of reach after all.